By Tom Williams
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Additional info for The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market
To fight the market means you are buying on up moves when there is supply coming onto the market and selling on down moves when there is no supply. That is a quick way to go broke. The 'Shake-Out' Charl13. $",1- S&PSOO daily 'The Shake-out' -:". ;ijuf ~ t- " f~ ;. "-~-~ : "- ~. rr! ;~=:~~- --=, ~ / a 12000 ... Chart courtesy VSA Five Why does this look like a shake-out and a time to buy? There are several reasons. We first have to look to the background at point (a). As we have mentioned earlier, as prices fall, a time will arrive when the 'Herd' will start to panic and will start to sell their holdings, because, together with falling prices and 'bad news' they fear even further falls.
The volume is low, and is a sign of strength. Testing is mostly orchestrated by the market makers and specialists to catch stops and to mislead the market as much as possible, and is usually done on 'bad news'. Effort with No Result A bullish rally is in progress, high volume appears, on an up-day (or bar) The news will be 'good'. Next day is down, or has only gone up on a narrow spread closing in the middle or even the lows. This is an indication of weakness. It must be weakness because if the high activity as seen in the high volume had been bullish, why is the market now reluctant to go up?
This confirms that professional money must have bought into the market on the lows at point (e). This is now confirmed as buying volume. However, markets do not like high volume simply because it means that supply is present. Note how the low at point (e) has moved back down into the area of supply seen over on the left hand side of the chart at point (a) If the volume had been low at point (e) then we would have a very strong buy signal of strength. Although the market is going up, it is struggling, it is labored.
The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market by Tom Williams