By Paul Dragos Aligica, Kenneth R. Weinstein
ISBN-10: 0739128280
ISBN-13: 9780739128282
ISBN-10: 0739128299
ISBN-13: 9780739128299
ISBN-10: 0739135147
ISBN-13: 9780739135143
It's very tricky to take the paintings of a prolific, wide-ranging, and influential writer and select and assemble a consultant sampling in their paintings in just 260 pages, yet Aligica and Weinstein have controlled the daunting activity. a lot of Herman Kahn's as soon as debatable paintings and methodologies became such a vital part of recent discourse, or in terms of futurist paintings, come to cross with uncanny accuracy, that it's worth taking a second to appreciate those roots, usually unrecognized and uncredited. additionally, Aligica and Weinstein, via their offerings, have published constant threads and ideas usually obscured by way of the sheer mass of Herman Kahn's output. they've got additionally restricted themselves from remark and interpretation, permitting the selected samples to talk for themselves. it really is to be was hoping that the e-book revives curiosity in a philosopher and writer, a lot of whose paintings remains to be acceptable (frighteningly so on the subject of his nuclear conflict paintings) many years after his loss of life.
Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling states in his foreword to the lately re-released ON ESCALATION via Kahn,
"I be aware of of no greater training for destiny nuclear hazards than this publication.
it really is forty-five years outdated yet is a vintage that may by no means be out of date.
i like to recommend it not just to those that, have been it 1965, could locate it crucial
in puzzling over the main risky matters in overseas affairs, yet to
these in a dozen or extra international locations now to whom nuclear guns are a brand new
difficulty and preoccupation.
it is a actual vintage that, i am afraid, is not really out of date."
As a futurist Kahn's predictions, frequently deemed overly positive, silly or arguable on the time, have come to move with such exceptional accuracy that it's tough for many humans to shortly think they have been as soon as thought of surprising and not likely. And the methodologies he built for puzzling over the longer term, or any factor, are cornerstones of all sleek destiny stories.
it truly is continuously priceless to check the paintings of guys with a dedication to considering; to transparent, neutral idea utilized to the main serious problems with the day. "In safety of pondering" is a suitable sub-title.
Thank you Aligica and Weinstein for a role good performed.
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Additional info for The Essential Herman Kahn: In Defense of Thinking
Example text
3. Even if it cannot be total, the goal should be disarmament rather than arms control. The objective of nuclear-weapons policy should not be solely to decrease the number of weapons in the world, but to make the world safer—which is not necessarily the same thing. World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race. S. and Soviet nuclear arsenals were reduced to very small, less intimidating, and probably more vulnerable forces. Developments that contribute to a safer world need not be the result of negotiations to reduce the number of nuclear weapons.
The question then arises as to why these groups cannot be employed solely and directly by the government. Some of them can be, and in fact are. However, on many problems independent research workers 22 Chapter 1 bring to their groups specialties and skills in short supply. Such institutions often provide a more efficient way to utilize scarce human resources. Inevitably the fact that most people studying national defense are paid by some agency of the government gives rise to the allegation of subservience rather than independence, that their studies are bought.
Some of them can be, and in fact are. However, on many problems independent research workers 22 Chapter 1 bring to their groups specialties and skills in short supply. Such institutions often provide a more efficient way to utilize scarce human resources. Inevitably the fact that most people studying national defense are paid by some agency of the government gives rise to the allegation of subservience rather than independence, that their studies are bought. Alternatively, it is argued that the corruption is more subtle than purely monetary influence; the analyst is attracted by the excitement of knowing about or influencing national policy, or he is bought by being given access to information, to laboratories, etc.
The Essential Herman Kahn: In Defense of Thinking by Paul Dragos Aligica, Kenneth R. Weinstein
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