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Additional resources for Itf Round Tables No. 140: The Wider Economic Benefits of Transport Macro-Meso-And Micro-Economic Transport Planning and Investment Tools

Sample text

It is worth noting however that in the earlier version Oosterhaven and Elhorst had produced a figure of 83 per cent). What is clear from Elhorst et al. (2004) is that the degree of detail in the modelling of labour market responses may be crucial here. But CGE models do still have major drawbacks: assumptions about equilibrium, the need for large data inputs from existing sources and the ‘black box’ nature of large models all limit their usefulness and ease of application. Thus far CGE models have tended to be used for cases where there are thought to be significant non-transport impacts; their use as part of the regular appraisal of minor transport projects might be difficult to justify.

2. Business organisation effects Turning to the impact on business, most studies have been carried out into the impact of the French TGV lines, particularly to examine the relative impacts on Paris and the provincial cities. Although such services led to a substantial growth of traffic the impact on the local economies of the cities served was much less certain. Generally such services cannot be shown to have had a major impact on the net redistribution of economic activity between Paris and the provincial cities, or on the overall rate of growth of these cities.

In imperfectly competitive markets, the direct effect of any increased competition resulting directly from lower transport costs is also likely to be essentially neutral in its impact. It is traditionally argued that monopoly power is derived from the effective barriers to competition provided by higher transport costs so that reductions in such barriers are pro-competitive, reducing monopoly mark-ups and hence there is a wider benefit resulting from the reduction of prices. On the other hand such competitive pressures if they do exist may also drive firms out of the market and the effect of lower transport costs is to reduce the number of firms able to compete in the market in the long run.

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