By Harvey S Rosen
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Extra resources for Studies in state and local public finance
28 James M. 5% surtax in 1970. I focus principally on the proposal of the surtax in 1967, and its effect on tax expectations. Okun (1971), in his study of consumption responses to the surtax, argues that “influenced in part by the history of the Korean war ‘temporary’ taxation, American citizens typically were skeptical that the tax surcharge would actually expire in a short time” (p. 178). This suggests that the surtax may have had larger effects than would ordinarily be associated with a three-year tax increase.
Alternative measures of 0; could be constructed from forecasts of the future course of personal, and corporate, tax policy. Evidence that changes in ex- 24 James M. Poterba pected personal tax rates influenced the taxable-tax exempt yield spread would contradict the bank arbitrage model and Miller Model I. The dependent variable in equation (16) is readily observable; it is the change in the implied tax rate between two periods. Unfortunately, the independent variable depends upon the path of tax expectations over a long horizon.
6a Changes in Implicit Tax Rates on Long-Maturity Bonds Variable Twenty-year maturity Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Constant May-June 62 Jan. 63 Jan. 67 June 68 Mar. 69 July 69 Sept. 69 June 80 Nov. 80 Dec. 80 Jan. N Feb. 81 Aug. 03 (2. 6a (continued) Variable Aug. 43) AUNEMP - ASHARESL - AFEDGRANT - AVOLATILITY - e R2 D. W. 62 NOTE:All equations are estimated for the period 1955: I - 1983: 12, a total of 348 monthly observations. Equations are estimated allowing for a first-order moving average error structure, with MA parameter 8, with a correction for heteroscedasticity.
Studies in state and local public finance by Harvey S Rosen