Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin's Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st PDF

By Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, Roger Cliff

ISBN-10: 0833042130

ISBN-13: 9780833042132

Escalation is a traditional tendency in any type of human pageant, and cutting-edge safety surroundings calls for that the USA be ready for a bunch of escalatory threats. This research of escalation dynamics and ways to escalation administration attracts on a number historic examples from global warfare I via Somalia within the early Nineteen Nineties to notify escalation similar decisionmaking.

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Extra resources for Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century

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7, No. 2, Autumn 1982; Posen, 1991. 32 Historians and security analysts long assumed that the UN forces’ approach to the Yalu was what provoked Chinese intervention. However, more recent scholarship based on Chinese records suggests that Beijing’s escalation threshold was actually the 38th parallel (Thomas J. Christensen, “Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace: The Lesson’s of Mao’s Korean War Telegrams,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 1, Summer 1992). This is a classic example of the difficulties of divining an adversary’s thresholds and the associated risks of inadvertent escalation.

Interests and provide stability in such a complex and dangerous environment raises several important questions that this monograph seeks to answer: 1. What is the fundamental nature of escalation? That is, removed from the historical and, perhaps, artificial context of bipolar, Introduction 5 superpower competition, what are the motives and mechanisms that drive escalation in military conflict? 2. What escalation risks result when those motives and mechanisms engage during confrontations with adversaries in the three categories of threat that characterize the current security environment?

Leaders face today. 5 First, the United States must remain prepared to manage potential confrontations with other large nuclear powers such as Russia and, particularly, China. China is the most populous country on the planet, and with the world’s second-largest economy, Beijing is modernizing its military, building capabilities to project force beyond its borders in East Asia. S. leaders must be prepared to manage escalation in any potential confrontation with this rising power. Second is the emergence of several new nuclear powers in regions in which the United States has important interests.

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Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century by Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, Roger Cliff

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